PoliticalModeling.com: 2020 Projections

TBD. If you have thoughts or questions feel free to contact me directly at drdavegoldberg@gmail.com.


EV"EV": Probability distribution of electoral vote outcomes.
Margin"Margin": States, sorted by order by predicted margin.
Probability"Probability": States, sorted by order of win probability.

Uniform"Uniform": Equal space per state.
Cumulative"Cumulative": Total electoral votes.

Show State NamesThis gets messy. Only click this if you plan on zooming in.

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WTA"Winner Take All": Highlights states according to the most likely winner, even if it's only 51% likely.
Probability"Probability": Shades of red to blue, with 25% (red) to 75% (blue) considered the extremes. Opacity is determined by the certainty and recentness of the polling
Margin"Margin": Estimate the current margin from state and national polling.
State Polls Only"State Polls Only": For well-polled states, the estimate of the current margin.

Relative to 2016"Relative": For well-polled states, indicate where they are compared to 2016.
Relative to National"Relative": For well-polled states, indicate whether they are more or less optimistic than a generic shift would indicate.